South Korea's Samsung Heavy Industries is analyzed to be still valid for mid- and long-term order momentum.
Researcher Lee Ji-Hoon from SK Securities said, "Short-term newbuilding order is faltering due to slow season, however, exploration and development of deep sea and increase in LNG demand keep mid- and long-term order momentum."
Lee added, "As low margin orders placed after 2009 would be reflected up to 30% in H2, it is natural to have lowered profitability. With exchange rate going up and thick plate prices relatively down compared to those from ordering time, however, profit decline would be limited." And forecast, "Operating margin in Q3 would fall a bit to 8.8% from 10.3% in Q2. Annual operating margin would go up 2%p to 9.6% from 2010."
He said, "Newbuilding order takes control of the share price of a shipbuilding company, and newbuilding order greatly depends on oil prices."
"As such, as long as oil prices do no plummet, the abrupt fall in share prices is over-reactive."
Samsung exceeded $14bn in new orders as of July end, and Lee expected total newbuilding order in 2011 to be over $18bn, over-achieving annual order target of $11.5bn set at the beginning of 2011.
Published : August 23, 2011
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