|Newbuilding prices are expected to fall further during the next two years.|
Danmarks Skibskredit (Danish Ship Finance) forecast in its 'October 2012 Shipping Market Review' that prices for less sophisticated ship types could fall around 10%-15% in 2013, and says that even then prices could head further south.
With order cover currently down 20% to just 19 months, only 30% of global yard capacity has been in demand this year, with just 13m cgt contracted.
Danmarks Skibskredit predicts that 4% of Chinese yard capacity will close or at least be inactive in 2012 while 5% of Korean yard capacity to close this year.
The bank believes that something like 20% of current capacity needs to go for the supply-demand balance to recover.
“We estimate that global yard capacity, by the end of 2014, could be back at the 2008 level,” the bank says. “The impact on newbuilding prices could be profound.”
Published : October 16, 2012
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