Thursday, December 20, 2012

[Ship Building] Recovery starts Q3 2013

Recovery starts Q3 2013

Amid shrinking new orders and dropping newbuilding prices, shipbuilding market is expected to start recovering from the Q3 2013 in a short term and from Q3 2014 in a long term.

The Bank of Korea (BOK)'s South Kyungsang Province head office published 'Recent shipbuilding/offshore market trend and its forecast' on December 14 and estimated that shipbuilding and offshore economy will wrap up a long-term depression, which has started after 2007, in around the third quarter of 2014 and turnaround to recover.

Comparing with the forecast from June, due to continued slow recovery of shipbuilding and shipping market, it has been delayed around nine months before the market to recover. Also, international oil prices, which is closely related to investment in offshore plant, lowered.

However, as some small-and-medium sized shipyards are going through restructuring in China, shipbuilding market is expected to recover, which would be an opportunity for Korean shipbuilders.

Meanwhile, Shipbuilding Business Index (SBI)'s circular variation will turn around to rise from the third quarter of 2013.

BOK's South Kyungsang Province head office developed a Shipbuilding Business Index (SBI) in May, using overall 11 indicators as variables, such as fleet tonnage, demolition, orderbook, newbuilding price, BDI, OECD's composite leading indicators, Reuter's Index of commodity prices, international oil price (Dubai), S&P 500 Index, etc.

Also, SBI is divided into secular trend and circular variation, which reflects long term and short term, respectively, of shipbuilding and offshore market trends.

Published : December 18, 2012

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1 comment:

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